Step Into My Office... (photo courtesy of Richmond Times-Dispatch)

Seth Greenberg has been fired as coach of Virginia Tech.  The NCAA Tournament Bubble has lost its most recognizable face, its most distinguishable grimace, and its squeakiest wheel of complaints.  It is truly a day of change in BubbleLand.

Greenberg’s Virginia Tech teams famously fell short of NCAA Tournament berths in 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010.  The 2009 and 2010 teams were painful omissions, and it seemed as though a dark cloud – or curse – was beginning to hover over the program.  And with each reluctant trip to the NIT, Greenberg became more outspoken about the raw deal his players were getting.  At the time, it was refreshing, sincere, and somewhat pacifying to Virginia Tech fans (like myself).

Winning

Seth Greenberg had some great wins, specifically over #1 teams (Duke 2011, Wake Forest 2008, twice over North Carolina in 2007).  But Greenberg never got the win he truly needed – the win that would get the team into the NCAA Tournament.  Of course, what that win should have been is completely objective.  Pundits and experts would summarize Tech’s entire seasons on certain games against equal competition, stating that they had to win one more ACC game to validate their spot in the tournament.  The Hokies almost never came through in those spots, and the conventional wisdom was that they could miss the tournament in 2007, 2009 and 2010.  We all know what happened next.

Losing

Greenberg and the Hokies tended to avoid embarrassing losses over the years in the ACC, but they hit the bumps in the road any mid-level team in the conference would.  An ugly loss at a league bottom-feeder was a perennial albatross on their necks when the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee met.  Almost everyone under serious debate in the selection room has games like that, but to the Hokies those slip-ups seemed to be especially magnified.  There are still, to this day, lingering thoughts of “If they had only beaten crappy Georgia Tech in 2010 they would have been in the tournament for sure.”

Identity

Here is where we get to the bottom line: Seth Greenberg had to go.  Not because of his record (it was good), not because of his personality (which can be prickly), but because he had become Virginia Tech’s basketball identity.  To his credit, Greenberg lifted the Hokies from a Big East cellar-dweller to a legitimately good ACC team during his tenure.  But not many people identify Tech with that - Virginia Tech is simply "That Team on the Bubble", and Greenberg’s face and name come up in every discussion about borderline NCAA Tournament teams.  His teams fall short at all the wrong times, and it was getting more and more painful with each passing year.  No Virginia Tech fan could stand to see it happen again.

We here at Tourneybubble are in complete agreement, the selection committee once again did a terrible job despite all the praise from the talking heads on ESPN and CBS. First, it starts with their treatment of mid-majors. The decision of the selection committee to do a "last four out" list this year and put 3 mid-majors on it his absurd and nothing but a garbage bit of lip service to cover up their tracks. It is our opinion that Drexel and Oral Roberts were not, in fact, a couple spots out. They were only listed there to try and cover up the fact that they were left out again and they want it to seem like they were given serious consideration. Sorry, we aren't buying it. If they did in fact give it serious consideration, there is no freaking chance they could put South Florida in over Drexel. Sorry, that is just our opinion on the matter. 

Secondly, we believe in the committee's eyes, they think they did put two "mid majors" in by putting in BYU and Iona. BYU is not a mid-major. Yes, they moved to the WCC conference, but they just simply do not qualify as a mid-major in our opinion. So of the last 8 teams into the tournament, that leaves exactly one mid-major, Iona. At the very least, I am of the opinion they put Iona into the tournament because they have two legitimate pro prospects in Machado and Momo Jones and the NBA scouts want to see how they will do in March. Drexel was left out because they have no pro prospects at all for the next 2 years. Same with Oral Roberts. They back doored Iona in because they want to keep the NBA happy and because Iona serves more of a purpose than another mid-major. Maybe that isn't the case, but you can't argue that 7 of the last 8 spots went to non mid-major teams. 

Next, we think the selection committee shows its true colors when it yet again matches up two very dangerous mid-major teams in the first round. VCU and Wichita State are both teams capable for making big runs this year. Much like last year when the committee matched up Old Dominion and Butler in the first round, one very capable team is going home in the first round this year because of the garbage mid vs. mid matchups the selection committee has come up with. And going back several years, you can list quite a few of these matchups that have occured. It's the same stupid junk every year from the people who are supposed to know college basketball.

Finally, Creighton got absolutely screwed. Giving them an 8 seed and forcing them to play UNC in the second round is just a ridiculous matchup the committee "put together" because Harrison Barnes and Doug McDermott were high school teammates. Creighton was in the top 25 a large portion of the year and won their conference tourney. They are absolutely a sweet 16 team this year, maybe better, if they were given the correct seeding which would be a 6 or a 7 seed in our opinion. But in typical committee fashion, they underseed a great mid-major and screw them by forcing them to play a 1 seed in the second round.

The funny thing is, Creighton could absolutely beat UNC with Doug McDermott and Greg Etchinique inside matching up against Henson and Zeller. They have the size and speed to stay with UNC. The problem is, and you can see this coming from outer space, the refs will have called 2 fouls on Etchinique by the 10 minute mark in the first half. Mark it down, it's absolutely going to happen. Creighton, on a neutral court and with actually neutral refs, could absolutely beat UNC. Hell, they still might even with all the advantages UNC is being given. But quite frankly, UNC-Creighton should not be a round of 32 matchup and it's yet another shitty job by the selection committee screwing a mid-major to the wall.

More thoughts to come, but those are the things that have us burning about the job these idiots did right now. 

“We looked at the 15 different indicators on the nitty-gritty sheet, we considered the regional advisory committee, the coaches’ input, all those factors,” selection honcho Smith tried to explain. “And then, we get into the qualitative part, talking about style of play and those types of things.”

Translation: We want to be entertained!  60-55 games are borrrr-ing!  I don't care if you were deserving, I want to see guys jack up some threes!

Yesterday committee chairman Jeff Hathaway said this of Iona's selection at the expense of Drexel (emphasis ours):

"They had a very good non-conference strength of schedule,” NCAA Tournament selection committee chairman Jeff Hathaway said of Iona on TruTV. “A very good basketball team, very good on offense. Obviously a lot of people will debate it and that’s what makes it fun.”

Translation: Derrp..they sure do score a lot!  Drexel don't score a lot.

In reality, can you argue that they used any other metric besides the dreaded "Eye Test"?  What makes the ten people on the Selection Committee any different than ten borderline retarded sports fans who only want to watch scoring and alley-oops?  Answer: Not much.

Now that Saint Bonaventure has swooped in and claimed the Atlantic 10's automatic bid, its officially time to stop watching the Bubble and make our predictions for the bracket.

Once again, we are basing our predictions based of what we think will happen, not what actually should happen.  Many deserving mid-majors are going to get the shaft.  Also, we are predicting the committee will set up Major vs. Mid-Major matchups in the First Four much like they did last year by selecting VCU and UAB to play in Dayton.

Locks (62): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State, Saint Bonaventure (Atlantic 10), Temple, St. Louis, Xavier, Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Connecticut, West Virginia, Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, Purdue, Missouri, Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Wichita State, Creighton (Missouri Valley), UNLV, New Mexico, San Diego State, Colorado State, Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Gonzaga, St. Mary’s (West Coast), Memphis (Conference USA), Southern Mississippi, Long Beach State (Big West), Murray State (OVC), Ohio (MAC), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Lamar (Southland), Detroit (Horizon), Montana (Big Sky), Long Island (NEC), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Lehigh (Patriot),South Dakota State (Summit), Colorado (Pac-12), New Mexico State (WAC), Harvard (Ivy), VCU (CAA), Loyola-Md. (Metro Atlantic), Davidson (SoCon), UNC Asheville (Big South), Vermont (America East), Norfolk State (MEAC), Mississippi Valley State (SWAC)


Last Four Byes: Xavier, Texas, NC State, West Virginia

 Last Four In: Mississippi State, BYU, California, Drexel

Last Four Out: South Florida, Dayton, Oral Roberts, Seton Hall

 Next Four Out: Miami, Iona, Tennessee, Northwestern

Next Five Out: Marshall, Washington, Oregon, Middle Tennessee State, Mississippi

Last Four In

Mississippi State
The Bulldogs catch a break as the committee resorts to their "37 Best Teams" rationale.

BYU
The Cougars sneak into the tournament as one of the First Four mid-major participants.

California
The Golden Bears squeak into the field by virtue of several decent wins and BCS clout.

Drexel
The Dragons get a well-deserved shot at the tourney after putting together the best win streak in the country outside of Kentucky and Murray State.

First Four Out

South Florida
The Bulls top-50 shortcomings sink their at-large hopes

Dayton
The Flyer's disjointed season, which had some great wins, falls just short of a tournament bid.

Oral Roberts
Any other year, and the Golden Eagles would probably be dancing.  But since their run was slightly less impressive than Drexel, they are edged out just barely short of a bid.

Seton Hall
The Pirates very well could have been kept out of the dance by Saint Bonaventure's win.  Or their terrible play down the stretch.

Next Four Out

Miami (Fl.)
Not enough top-100 wins to warrant a bid, and that sweep by NC State was fatal.

Iona
The talented Gaels took a couple of ghastly losses that likely will keep them from dancing.

Tennessee
The Vols came together at the end of the year with some impressive wins, but they couldnt overcome their awful start to the campaign.

Northwestern
Good losses don't count for much if you only have one good win to counter them with.




 

Bubble (19):

ACC

NC State (22-12, 11-8 RPI 48 SOS 25)
The Wolfpack lost a heartbreaker to UNC on Saturday and now must wait a long day to learn their fate. For now, they are in but we will have to see how many bids are still available once the dust settles. 1-8 against the top-50 and 6-10 against the top-100 doesnt scream lock, but there might be enough room.

Miami (19-12, 10-8 RPI 57 SOS 43)
The Hurricanes lost Durand Scott - and the game - against Florida State and are now in serious trouble. Win both and they're in, win one and they'll be sweating bullets come Sunday. The 3-11 top-100 record remains an albatross. While they dont have any "bad" losses, they also have very few good ones outside of wins over Duke and Florida State.

Atlantic 10

Dayton (20-12, 10-8 RPI 80 SOS 68)
The schizo-Flyers needed a win over Xavier today to continue their strange journey towards an at-large, but fell short. They are 4-4 against the top-50 and 8-8 against the top-100, but have some of the worst losses of any Bubble team. We will see what shakes out today. They aren't completely dead, but it really isnt looking good right now.

Big East

Seton Hall (20-12, 9-11 RPI 68 SOS 49)
The blah loss to Louisville really puts the Pirates in a precarious position. They have 4 top-50 wins but havent been in good form down the stretch. The best they can reasonably hope for is a play-in game, assuming no big surprises happen elsewhere.

South Florida (20-13, 13-7 RPI 53 SOS 28)
6-10 against the top-100 is borderline OK, but the 1-9 record against the top-50 is not. The three sub-100 losses to ODU, Penn State and Auburn also do not help out much, and they didn't really beat anyone of note out of conference. Bottom line: the Bulls will be very lucky to hear their name called on Sunday.

Big Ten

Northwestern (18-13, 8-11 RPI 63 SOS 21)
Sentimentality aside, the only thing you really have to know about Northwestern is that they went 1-10 against the RPI top-50. They do not deserve an at-large with that kind of performance.

Big 12

Texas (20-13, 10-10 RPI 50 SOS 18)
The loss to Missouri did not change much for the Horns, who are still probably OK to slip into the tournament despite thoroughly mediocre computer numbers. They are 4-11 against the top-50, which believe it or not, stands out in this Bubble group. Since 11 0f their 13 losses came to "good" teams, expect the committee to give them a break.

Conference USA

Marshall (20-13, 12-8 RPI 44 SOS 24)
Could the Thundering Herd be this year's VCU? Wins over Cincinnati, Iona, Belmont and two against Southern Miss, plus a trip to the conference tournament final has them on the board. The 6-10 record against the top-100 is not great, but the 4-5 top-50 mark is fairly impressive. They really, really couldhave used a win over Memphis in one of their three tries.

Pac-12

California (24-9, 14-6 RPI 38 SOS 86)
The Golden Bears lost to Colorado in the Pac-12 semifnals, so they aren thrown back into the at-large pool. They lost three of four to close out the season, but the 9-7 top-100 record may be enough to slip into the field as an at-large provided there is enough room.
Washington (21-10, 14-5 RPI 71 SOS 92)
Welp, that sure sucked. Falling to Oregon State in the Pac-12 quarterfinals makes the regular-season champions at-large chances seem doomed. They have just ONE top-70 win all season. Though the regular-season title may carry weight, there isn't any reason we can see to give the Huskies a place in the field of 68.

Oregon (22-9, 13-6 RPI 64 SOS 94)
The Ducks loss to Colorado probably doomed them to the NIT. Their only "good" wins came in Pac-12 league play...and you know all about how good the Pac-12 was this year.

SEC

Mississippi State (21-11, 8-9 RPI 74 SOS 76)
Yikes. Once a ranked, surefire NCAA lock, the Bulldogs flamed out in the first round of the SEC Tournament and will have a very long wait to Selection Sunday. My gut says their wins over Alabama, West Virginia and Vanderbilt will slip them in (possibly to Dayton on Tuesday), the RPI is now stuck in "reach" territory.

Mississippi (20-12, 10-8 RPI 61 SOS 45)
We've kept the Rebels on the page for longer than most, which is understandable due to their 6-11 top-100 record. They do have wins over Miami, Mississippi State (twice) and Alabama.

Tennessee (18-14, 10-7 RPI 85 SOS 34)
The heartbreaking loss to Ole Miss in the SEC quarterfinals probably ended the Vols chances at an improbable at-large. Expect them to be one of the last four out, but they could possibly pull a 2011 USC and squeak in due to "quality wins".

West Coast

BYU (25-8, 13-5 RPI 46 SOS 101)
The Cougars have spent a long week watching and waiting, but the 3-6 top-50 mark and 5-6 top-100 marks are looking more and more acceptable. Still, the best they can hope for is probably a trip to Dayton.

Others

Oral Roberts (27-6, 18-2 Summit RPI 51 SOS 190)
The Golden Eagles are hanging around with their 3-3 top-100 record that includes solid wins over Xavier, Akron and South Dakota State. But can they overcome three sub-100 losses? It may take an act of God for Ned Flanders' alma mater.
 
Middle Tennessee State (24-6, 14-3 Sun Belt RPI 57 SOS 184)
Although that loss to Western Kentucky isnt looking too bad right now, the Blue Raiders still need a lot of help to make the move towards the cutline. Wins over Ole Miss, Belmont and Akron are looking better and better.

Drexel (27-6, 18-3 CAA RPI 67 SOS 213)
You know the numbers by now - 19 game winning streak, outright CAA title, and a 24-1 strectch that lasted nearly three months. The computer numbers are dicey, but they do have a 1-1 top-50 record. Luckily for them, the media chatter (which does make a difference to the committee as evidenced by interviews with past chairmen) says they pass the eye test and should be in.

Iona (25-7, 16-4 MAAC RPI 41 SOS 144)
Nobody disputes that this is a good team, but their best wins are against St. Joseph's and Nevada, and they are largely offset by four sub-100 losses. Maybe the committee saw their nationally televised dissection of Nevada and came away impressed? Who knows.

(photos courtesy of CNNSI.com)

Bubble (20):

ACC

NC State (22-12, 11-8 RPI 49 SOS 34)
The Wolfpack lost a heartbreaker to UNC on Saturday and now must wait a long day to learn their fate.  For now, they are in but we will have to see how many bids are still available once the dust settles.

Miami (19-12, 10-8 RPI 57 SOS 43)
The Hurricanes lost Durand Scott - and the game - against Florida State and are now in serious trouble. Win both and they're in, win one and they'll be sweating bullets come Sunday. The 3-11 top-100 record remains an albatross.  While they dont have any "bad" losses, they also have very few good ones outside of wins over Duke and Florida State.

Atlantic 10
 
Dayton (20-12, 10-8 RPI 79 SOS 67)
The schizo-Flyers needed a win over Xavier today to continue their strange journey towards an at-large, but fell short. They are 3-2 against the top-50 and 8-8 against the top-100, but have some of the worst losses of any Bubble team. We will see what shakes out today.  They aren't completely dead, but it really isnt looking good right now.

Big East

Seton Hall (20-12, 9-11 RPI 67 SOS 50)
The blah loss to Louisville really puts the Pirates in a precarious position. They have 3 top-50 wins but havent been in good form down the stretch. The best they can reasonably hope for is a play-in game, assuming no big surprises happen elsewhere.

South Florida (20-13, 13-7 RPI 53 SOS 27)
6-10 against the top-100 is borderline OK, but the 1-9 record against the top-50 is not. The three sub-100 losses to ODU, Penn State and Auburn also do not help out much, and they didn't really beat anyone of note out of conference. Bottom line: the Bulls will be very lucky to hear their name called on Sunday.

Big Ten

Northwestern (18-13, 8-11 RPI 61 SOS 19)
Sentimentality aside, the only thing you really have to know about Northwestern is that they went 1-10 against the RPI top-50. They do not deserve an at-large with that kind of performance.

Big 12

Texas (20-13, 10-10 RPI 48 SOS 18)
The loss to Missouri did not change much for the Horns, who are still probably OK to slip into the tournament despite thoroughly mediocre computer numbers.  They are 4-11 against the top-50, which believe it or not, stands out in this Bubble group.  Since 11 0f their 13 losses came to "good" teams, expect the committee to give them a break. 

Conference USA

  Marshall (20-13, 12-8 RPI 47 SOS 24)
Could the Thundering Herd be this year's VCU?  Wins over Cincinnati, Iona, Belmont and two against Southern Miss, plus a trip to the conference tournament final has them on the board.  The 6-10 record against the top-100 is not great, but the 4-5 top-50 mark is fairly impressive. They really, really couldhave used a win over Memphis in one of their three tries. 

Pac-12

California (24-9, 14-6 RPI 36 SOS 83)
The Golden Bears lost to Colorado in the Pac-12 semifnals, so they aren thrown back into the at-large pool.  They lost three of four to close out the season, but the 9-7 top-100 record may be enough to slip into the field as an at-large provided there is enough room.
Washington (21-10, 14-5 RPI 69 SOS 87)
Welp, that sure sucked. Falling to Oregon State in the Pac-12 quarterfinals makes the regular-season champions at-large chances seem doomed. They have just ONE top-70 win all season. Though the regular-season title may carry weight, there isn't any reason we can see to give the Huskies a place in the field of 68.

Oregon (22-9, 13-6 RPI 64 SOS 96)
The Ducks loss to Colorado probably doomed them to the NIT. Their only "good" wins came in Pac-12 league play...and you know all about how good the Pac-12 was this year.

SEC

Mississippi State (21-11, 8-9 RPI 74 SOS 72)
Yikes. Once a ranked, surefire NCAA lock, the Bulldogs flamed out in the first round of the SEC Tournament and will have a very long wait to Selection Sunday. My gut says their wins over Alabama, West Virginia and Vanderbilt will slip them in (possibly to Dayton on Tuesday), the RPI is now stuck in "reach" territory.

Mississippi (20-12, 10-8 RPI 54 SOS 48)
We've kept the Rebels on the page for longer than most, which is understandable due to their 6-11 top-100 record. They do have wins over Miami, Mississippi State (twice) and Alabama. 

Tennessee (18-14, 10-7 RPI 77 SOS 31)
The heartbreaking loss to Ole Miss in the SEC quarterfinals probably ended the Vols chances at an improbable at-large.  Expect them to be one of the last four out, but they could possibly pull a 2011 USC and squeak in due to "quality wins".

West Coast

BYU (25-8, 13-5 RPI 42 SOS 99)
The Cougars have spent a long week watching and waiting, but the 3-6 top-50 mark and 5-6 top-100 marks are looking more and more acceptable. Still, the best they can hope for is probably a trip to Dayton.

Others

Oral Roberts (27-6, 18-2 Summit RPI 50 SOS 191)
The Golden Eagles are hanging around with their 3-3 top-100 record that includes solid wins over Xavier, Akron and South Dakota State. But can they overcome three sub-100 losses? It may take an act of God for Ned Flanders' alma mater.

Long Beach State (22-8, 17-1 Big West RPI 37 SOS 130)
The 49ers moved on to the Big West finals, and stand one win away from an automatic bid. They may want to scoop that up just to make sure of things, but their murderous nonconference schedule should buy them some favor with the committee.

Middle Tennessee State (24-6, 14-3 Sun Belt RPI 56 SOS 181)
Although that loss to Western Kentucky isnt looking too bad right now, the Blue Raiders still need a lot of help to make the move towards the cutline. Wins over Ole Miss, Belmont and Akron are looking better and better. 

Drexel (27-6, 18-3 CAA RPI 66 SOS 213)
You know the numbers by now - 19 game winning streak, outright CAA title, and a 24-1 strectch that lasted nearly three months. The computer numbers are dicey, but they do have a 1-1 top-50 record. Luckily for them, the media chatter (which does make a difference to the committee as evidenced by interviews with past chairmen) says they pass the eye test and should be in.

Iona (25-7, 16-4 MAAC RPI 41 SOS 144)
Nobody disputes that this is a good team, but their best wins are against St. Joseph's and Nevada, and they are largely offset by four sub-100 losses. Maybe the committee saw their nationally televised dissection of Nevada and came away impressed? Who knows.

(photos courtesy of CNNSI.com)

Bubble (21):

ACC

 NC State (20-11, 9-7 RPI 55 SOS 33)
The Wolfpack seem to be hitting their stride, although its important to note that their last two wins have been against Boston College and Virginia Tech.  Beat Virginia today in the ACC quarterfinals, and its time to take their chances seriously.

 Miami (19-11, 10-7 RPI 49 SOS 45)
The Hurricanes needed to stomp Georgia Tech and took care of business emphatically.  Next up is a must-win game against Florida State and a possible semifinal showdown with Duke.  Win both and they're in, win one and they'll be sweating bullets come Sunday.  The 3-10 top-100 record remains an albatross.

Atlantic 10

 Xavier (19-11, 11-6 RPI 54 SOS 47)
Wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue and Cincinnati help, but they are the only bright spots on the profile and they happened a long, long time ago.  Considering their Atheltic Director is on the committee and will be the Chairman next year, expect them to get special treatment regardless.

 St. Joseph’s (20-12, 10-7 RPI 60 SOS 52)
The Hawks simply have to beat St. Bonaventure in today's A-10 quarterfinals to keep their at-large chances alive.  Wins over Temple and Creighton are keeping them in the mix for now.
 
 Dayton (20-11, 10-7 RPI 74 SOS 69)
The schizo-Flyers need a win over Xavier today to continue their strange journey towards an at-large.  They are 3-2 against the top-50 and 8-7 against the top-100, but have some of the worst losses of any Bubble team.  We will see what shakes out today. 

Big East
 
 Seton Hall (20-12, 9-11 RPI 66 SOS 50)
The blah loss to Louisville really puts the Pirates in a precarious position.  They have 3 top-50 wins but havent been in good form down the stretch.  The best they can reasonably hope for is a play-in game, assuming no big surprises happen elsewhere.

 South Florida (20-13, 13-7 RPI 47 SOS 23)
6-10 against the top-100 is borderline OK, but the 1-9 record against the top-50 is not.  The three sub-100 losses to ODU, Penn State and Auburn also do not help out much, and they didn't really beat anyone of note out of conference.  Bottom line: the Bulls will be very lucky to hear their name called on Sunday. 

Big Ten

 Northwestern (18-13, 8-11 RPI 57 SOS 14)
Sentimentality aside, the only thing you really have to know about Northwestern is that they went 1-10 against the RPI top-50.  They do not deserve an at-large with that kind of performance. 

Big 12

 Texas (20-12, 9-8 RPI 43 SOS 19)
That's the way you Bubble, Texas!  A win over Iowa State sends the Horns to the Big 12 semifinals and a shot at Missouri.  They are 4-9 against the top-50, which believe it or not, stands out in this Bubble group.  Most importantly, they are still playing and still have the chance to win games and impress the committee.

Pac-12

 California (24-8, 14-5 RPI 34 SOS 82)
The Golden Bears won more than just a quarterfinal game over Stanford, they also won lead-dog status in the Pac-12 at-large race.  Oregon and Washington both lost and left Cal as the most likely Pac-12 team to get an at-large should they need it.  Even better, with their toughest competition eliminated their path to an automatic bid just got a lot easier.

 Washington (21-10, 14-5 RPI 68 SOS 83)
Welp, that sure sucked.  Falling to Oregon State in the Pac-12 quarterfinals makes the regular-season champions at-large chances seem doomed.  They have just ONE top-75 win all season.  Though the regular-season title may carry weight, there isn't any reason we can see to give the Huskies a place in the field of 68.

 Oregon (22-9, 13-6 RPI 63 SOS 92)
The Ducks loss to Colorado probably doomed them to the NIT.  Their only "good" wins came in Pac-12 league play...and you know all about how good the Pac-12 was this year.

SEC

 Mississippi State (21-11, 8-9 RPI 71 SOS 70)
Yikes.  Once a ranked, surefire NCAA lock, the Bulldogs flamed out in the first round of the SEC Tournament and will have a very long wait to Selection Sunday.  My gut says their wins over Alabama, West Virginia and Vanderbilt will slip them in (possibly to Dayton on Tuesday), the RPI is now stuck in "reach" territory. 

 Mississippi (19-12, 9-8 RPI 53 SOS 43)
We've kept the Rebels on the page for longer than most, which is understandable due to their 6-11 top-100 record.  They do have wins over Miami, Mississippi State and Alabama.  Can they beat Tennessee and then make a run to the finals?  They need it.
 
 Tennessee (18-13, 10-6 RPI 77 SOS 31)
It all started with the eye-catching sweep of Florida, where we sat up and took notice of a Vols team gelling at just the right time.  They are in prime position to grab a couple of wins at the SEC Tournament and possibly jump into the field after a disastrous start to the season.

West Coast

 BYU (25-8, 13-5 RPI 45 SOS 98)
The Cougars have spent a long week watching and waiting, but the 3-6 top-50 mark and 5-6 top-100 marks are looking more and more acceptable.  Still, the best they can hope for is a trip to Dayton.

Others

 Oral Roberts (27-6, 18-2 Summit RPI 50 SOS 192)
The Golden Eagles are hanging around with their 3-3 top-100 record that includes solid wins over Xavier, Akron and South Dakota State.  But can they overcome three sub-100 losses?  It may take an act of God for Ned Flanders' alma mater.
 
 Long Beach State (21-8, 16-1 Big West RPI 38 SOS 192)
The 49ers moved on to the Big West semifinals, and stand two wins away from an automatic bid.  They may want to scoop that up just to make sure of things, but their murderous nonconference schedule should buy them some favor with the committee. 

 Middle Tennessee State (24-6, 14-3 Sun Belt RPI 59 SOS 184)
Although that loss to Western Kentucky isnt looking too bad right now, the Blue Raiders still need a lot of help to make the move towards the cutline.  On the positive side, their wins over Belmont 

 Drexel (27-6, 18-3 CAA RPI 65 SOS 209)
You know the numbers by now - 19 game winning streak, outright CAA title, and a 24-1 strectch that lasted nearly three months.  The computer numbers are dicey, but they do have a 1-1 top-50 record.  Luckily for them, the media chatter (which does make a difference to the committee as evidenced by interviews with past chairmen) says they pass the eye test and should be in.

 Iona (25-7, 16-4 MAAC RPI 40 SOS 144)
Nobody disputes that this is a good team, but their best wins are against St. Joseph's and Nevada, and they are largely offset by four sub-100 losses.  Maybe the committee saw their nationally televised dissection of Nevada and came away impressed?  Who knows.

(photos courtesy of CNNSI.com)

Bubble (23):

ACC

NC State (20-11, 9-7 RPI 53 SOS 19)
Miami (18-11, 9-7 RPI 52 SOS 50)

Atlantic 10

Xavier (19-11, 10-6 RPI 57 SOS 51)
St. Joseph’s (20-12, 10-7 RPI 54 SOS 36)
Dayton (20-11, 10-7 RPI 73 SOS 77)

Big East
 
Seton Hall (20-12, 9-11 RPI 50 SOS 61)
South Florida (20-12, 13-6 RPI 44 SOS 27)

Big Ten

Northwestern (18-13, 8-11 RPI 45 SOS 8)

Big 12

Texas (18-11, 8-8 RPI 51 SOS 21)

Mountain West

Colorado State (20-10, 9-6 RPI 21 SOS 4)

Pac-12

California (23-8, 13-5 RPI 37 SOS 103)
Washington (21-10, 14-5 RPI 58 SOS 86)
Oregon (22-8, 13-5 RPI 49 SOS 87) 

SEC

Mississippi State (21-10, 8-8 RPI 60 SOS 76)
Mississippi (18-12, 8-8 RPI 60 SOS 38)
Tennessee (18-13, 10-6 RPI 75 SOS 39)

West Coast

BYU (25-8, 13-5 RPI 48 SOS 106)

Others

Oral Roberts (27-6, 18-2 Summit RPI 49 SOS 185)
Long Beach State (20-8, 15-1 Big West RPI 35 SOS 91)
Middle Tennessee State (24-6, 14-3 Sun Belt RPI 58 SOS 184)
Drexel (27-6, 18-3 CAA RPI 65 SOS 245)
Iona (25-7, 16-4 MAAC RPI 46 SOS 162)
Nevada (23-5, 14-1 WAC RPI 47 SOS 145)

Bubble (23):

ACC

NC State (20-11, 9-7 RPI 55 SOS 22)
Miami (18-11, 9-7 RPI 51 SOS 48)

Atlantic 10

Xavier (19-11, 10-6 RPI 54 SOS 51)
St. Joseph’s (20-12, 10-7 RPI 52 SOS 33)
Dayton (20-11, 10-7 RPI 71 SOS 66)

Big East
 
Seton Hall (20-11, 9-10 RPI 56 SOS 58)
South Florida (20-12, 13-6 RPI 44 SOS 29)

Big Ten

Northwestern (18-12, 8-10 RPI 45 SOS 8)

Big 12

Texas (18-11, 8-8 RPI 50 SOS 19)

Mountain West

Colorado State (19-10, 8-6 RPI 21 SOS 5)

Pac-12

California (23-8, 13-5 RPI 37 SOS 100)
Washington (21-9, 14-4 RPI 57 SOS 86)
Oregon (22-8, 13-5 RPI 49 SOS 87) 

SEC

Mississippi State (21-10, 8-8 RPI 60 SOS 77)
Mississippi (18-12, 8-8 RPI 58 SOS 39)
Tennessee (18-13,10-6 RPI 75 SOS 40)

West Coast

BYU (25-8, 13-5 RPI 48 SOS 104)

Others

Oral Roberts (27-6, 18-2 Summit RPI 39 SOS 188)
Long Beach State (20-8, 15-1 Big West RPI 35 SOS 93)
Middle Tennessee State (24-6, 14-3 Sun Belt RPI 64 SOS 186)
Drexel (27-6, 18-3 CAA RPI 67 SOS 251)
Iona (25-7, 16-4 MAAC RPI 46 SOS 160)
Nevada (23-5, 14-1 WAC RPI 44 SOS 144)